I Source Electronics for a Living. Here's What 10 Gigawatts Actually Requires.
Elon Musk told SpaceX employees the company will go from roughly 1.4 gigawatts of AI compute to 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027. I don't read that as a vision statement. I read it as a bill of materials with no lead times on it. On August 11, SpaceX released a thirty-minute all-hands video. In it, Elon Musk said AI revenue would exceed all other SpaceX revenue as soon as September, that AI would represent 99% of the company's value within five years, and that compute capacity would go from about 1.4 GW today, past 2 GW by the end of this year, to roughly 10 GW by the end of 2027. At $30 to $50 per watt per year, he put that at $300 to $500 billion in annual revenue. Most of the commentary that followed argued about the revenue number. Almost none of it argued about the watts. That's the wrong way round, and I say that as someone whose entire job is the boring half of this equation. I run a contract manufacturer. People send me designs and I turn them into shipped u...